🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Trader Profited $436,000 on Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was made public, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the close of the month rose in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on the weekend that the president had been taken into custody. A particular user, which registered on the site in December and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Market statistics shows that participants assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. However the odds had increased to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the morning of January 3rd, pointing to a sudden change in betting activity just before the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on non-public details," stated Dennis Kelleher. A handful of other platform users also profited large payouts from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Intensifies Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule introduced on the start of the week would prevent federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the United States, with participants able to wager on everything from elections to politics. The industry were examined under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Trading on insider information is against the law in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting arena. An official representative for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."