A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
