Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
